This story was produced as part of a partnership between THE CITY and NOTUS, a publication from the nonprofit, nonpartisan Allbritton Journalism Institute.
Community and charity organizations in New York are gearing up to shoulder the fallout from potential cuts to Medicaid and federal food assistance.
Many in the state are wondering: Can they actually fill the gap?
It’s “something that’s really scary, because we know in general that food banks, pantries, the charitable food system alone isn’t enough,” Alyssa Harrynanan, the advocacy coordinator at Feeding New York State, told NOTUS about cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. “We already can’t meet that increasing need, so it’s just going to devastate us further.”
New York is home to some of the most Medicaid and SNAP-reliant districts in the nation. Though specific numbers vary based on the data used, that reliance is especially pronounced in New York City — specifically districts like Rep. Ritchie Torres’ in the Bronx, according to a NOTUS analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
Almost 40% of his district’s residents — the second-highest share in the United States — rely on Medicaid for health insurance coverage, and more than 43% of households received SNAP or food stamps in the last year, putting the district first in the nation for food assistance.
The House GOP tax bill cuts federal spending on both those programs, introducing more restrictive work requirements, among other measures. More than 1 million New Yorkers could lose Medicaid coverage because of the work requirement provision alone, said Cristina Batt, the senior vice president for federal policy at the Healthcare Association of New York State.
The cuts put additional pressure on state governments and independent organizations to cover those in need of medical care and food assistance. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the House’s bill would result in a net $78 billion in additional state spending to offset federal reductions.
“My concern is that as the federal government is retracting a lot of their investment in our state, [Gov. Kathy Hochul] is going to have to re-look at her investments,” said Grace Bonilla, the President and CEO of United Way of New York City, a nonprofit organization that offers food and healthcare assistance.
The Congressional Budget Office said this month that states could respond to the Medicaid cuts by reducing enrollment or reducing payments to healthcare providers.
“Ultimately, what we’re going to see is uninsured patients coming into the hospital emergency room, because either they’re foregoing care, because they don’t have health care to access their primary care, or they come in at the last moment so they’re more sick,” Batt told NOTUS. “They’re more costly to take care of, and ultimately, the hospital will have to count that as uncompensated care.”
It’s a cycle that could push healthcare providers to scale back services, she added, potentially also affecting New Yorkers who don’t actually lose health insurance coverage.
The House bill also includes a proposal that would reduce the average SNAP benefits available to households by more than a dollar, which Harrynanan said would make it more difficult for most people to purchase enough food.
“We’ve heard from community directly who say that this alone is not enough. It’s not enough to get $6 a day,” she told NOTUS.
That means demand for resources at food pantries and food banks will likely increase, though those organizations are already facing high demand and pressure from federal cuts unrelated to the tax bill.
“We’ve already lost about $4 million in FEMA money that goes to pantries. Any further loss of that makes it impossible for pantries to keep staff and to serve folks at the same time that you are retracting SNAP benefits,” Bonilla said.
The impending uptick in visits to food pantries would come on top of already-increasing numbers due to inflation.
Work requirements for SNAP, which researchers have said could disproportionately affect single parents and other vulnerable groups, pose similar issues, Harrynanan told NOTUS.
For instance, among households with adults in their 50s and 60s — who would be subject to more restrictive work requirements if the House bill becomes law — more than 150,000 New Yorkers could be at risk of losing access to SNAP benefits.
Without SNAP, K-12 students in the state could at least partially fall back on free school meals. Hochul announced earlier this year that the state will offer free school breakfast and lunch for all students starting in the fall.
But if that policy changes, the House GOP’s reconciliation bill could restrict pathways for children to qualify for free school meals. Currently, children whose families receive SNAP assistance automatically qualify for free meals across the nation, but if those families lose access to SNAP benefits, they will have to fill out paperwork for their children to qualify, creating further barriers to entry.
Bonilla also told NOTUS she’s worried about whether the free meal program will even go forward if the state has to contend with tax bill cuts.
The tax bill’s final form is yet to be seen. It heads to the Senate next week, where some Republican lawmakers have expressed concerns about welfare rollbacks.
But others in Congress — including fiscal hawks in both chambers who decried the bill earlier this month for not making enough cuts — applauded Medicaid and SNAP rollbacks. Those have suggested they won’t budge when it comes to the cuts and argue that the rollbacks are simply rooting out wasteful spending that doesn’t align with the party’s agenda.
It’s left New Yorkers scrambling as they contend with what comes next — including the possibility that no amount of alternative resources can offset the potential losses from the cuts.
“We don’t really know what we’re going to do,” Harrynanan said. “We’re going to do our best, but it’s still not going to be enough to meet that growing need.”
Shifra Dayak is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.
