Rep. George Santos has improperly used campaign funds for OnlyFans and Botox. 

But one thing he won’t be doing is running next year to keep his seat in New York’s third congressional district — where 16 candidates have already filed to run for the swing-district vacancy as Democrats are looking to flip an estimated five seats in New York to regain a House majority.

“This election and this race is one of the best Democratic pickup opportunities in the country,” said Democratic strategist Trip Yang, who called the race a “bellwether” for Democratic control of the House. “I would call this a race that Democrats can’t afford to take for granted.”

The congressional candidates’ positioning on Middle East policy and public safety will be key to appealing to the swath of Jewish voters and growing population of Asian voters in the district, which covers a sliver of northeastern Queens and parts of Nassau County, added political consultant Hank Sheinkopf.

“People are discounting the strength of the Republican organization in Nassau County, which blanked out the Democrats this past fall and wiped out the Democrats the previous year,” Sheinkopf told THE CITY. “Democrats are saying, ‘Well, it’s ours.’ But I don’t believe that’s necessarily the case. The Republicans are not going to give that up without a fight. And it all depends on when Santos leaves.”

Santos announced on Nov. 16 that he won’t seek reelection just moments after the bipartisan House Ethics Committee released a 56-page report documenting a series of damning findings, including allegations that he has “knowingly caused” his campaign to file false reports with the Federal Election Commission and defrauded donors for personal purchases. The first-term congressman has denied all accusations.

The ’s chairman, Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.), on Nov. 17 filed a resolution to expel Santos from Congress — the latest in a series of previously failed efforts to oust the rookie. Meanwhile, Santos faces a 23-count federal indictment including allegations that he has falsified statements to the FEC and committed wire fraud, money laundering, aggravated identity theft, and theft of public funds. He pleaded not guilty to those charges, but could face a lengthy prison sentence if convicted.

The expulsion vote is expected after the Thanksgiving holiday, whereas Santos has planned to host a press conference Nov. 30. While Yang says Republicans “will have to live with the consequences of not having vetted George Santos through their process,” Sheinkopf said how Republicans align on that vote, as well as the vote’s outcome itself, will likely inform the GOP’s performance in the Queens-Long Island district.

If the election was “a referendum on Republicans, the Republicans can win. If it’s a referendum on Republicans and Santos, then it’s more problematic,” Sheinkopf told THE CITY. “If he’s gone, it’s no longer about George Santos — Santos is the issue, not the Republicans. It’s his conduct, not Republicans … If he stays till the end of the term, then it’s a problem.”

So far, generally rare,” Danielle Caputo, legal counsel for ethics at the Campaign Legal Center, told THE CITY in May. If Santos were to be expelled, however, state law would require Gov. Kathy Hochul to declare a special election within 10 days of the seat’s vacancy, with of each county party committees, rather than voters, selecting their own nominees for the race.

If a regular election is what comes to , here are the candidates who have already filed to run for the swing district seat — one of the wealthiest in the country — in 2024. (A congressional primary date for New York is still pending.)  County party committees are also likely to draw from this list for nominations if a special election were to take place.

Top Odds:

Tom Suozzi (D)

Who is he? Former House Representative for NY-3; Co-chair of Actum, a lobbying firm

How much cash does his campaign have? $58,182.35 as of Sept.30, according to federal records

After his unsuccessful run for governor against Hochul in the Democratic primary last year, the district’s former congressman announced his campaign in early October to win his old seat back. Suozzi says he’s focusing on cost of living, immigration, crime, climate change, and “combating terrorism in the Middle East and globally” this election cycle, though his campaign website does not yet detail exactly how. He wrote: “We need more common sense and comion and less chaos and senseless fighting.” 

Critics, however, have gone after Suozzi for his plans as a Nassau County executive in 2006 to reduce abortions locally, and for his initial for the Hyde Amendment — before ultimately voting to repeal that law that bans the use of public health insurance like Medicaid from abortion care. But he has long ed legalized abortion, and his team said he also received 100-percent ratings from the Planned Parenthood Action Fund during his time in Congress.

Since Suozzi ed the race, three Democratic candidates have dropped out to endorse the three-term congressman, including former City Council candidate Steve Behar and two others who had already raised more than half a million dollars for their campaigns: Nassau County legislator Josh Lafazan and Zak Malamed, co-founder of The Next 50, a national PAC that “invests in 50 young leaders every two years.” Malamed said in a statement then: “Nominating Tom Suozzi is our best chance to flip this district blue and end the toxic hold that MAGA Republicans have on Long Island and Congress at large.”

Betsy Davidson, a spokesperson for the Suozzi campaign, told THE CITY that the candidate has already received endorsements from the New Democrats, one of the largest Democratic caucuses in the House.

New York State Democratic Committee chair and Nassau County Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs is also said to be a friend and longtime ally of Suozzi. But Jacobs told Politico last month that he had not yet made a decision on whom to nominate if it were to come down to a special election, and that he would confer with other party leaders on the matter.

Anna Kaplan (D)

Who is she? Former New York State senator representing Port Washington; former Council member in the Town of North Hempstead, Nassau County.

How much cash does her campaign have? $419,278.42

The two-term state senator was the first Iranian American to be elected to the New York State legislature when she won her race in 2018 — before losing her seat to a Republican last year as the GOP gained traction on Long Island.

“For me, this congressional district is very, very personal. I left a country where I saw the right-wing extremists taking over and stripped women of their rights,” she told City & State in August. Kaplan, who was the only woman in the crowded race as of November, first arrived in New York from Iran as a child refugee fleeing persecution for being Jewish, she said. Her campaign did not respond to THE CITY’s request for comment.

Kaplan, who has talked about having a dilation and curettage procedure after a miscarriage, is championing abortion rights as a major part of her campaign. While in the State Senate, she co-sponsored and ed a bill that protected rights to abortion in the state regardless of any federal decisions to limit access. She’s said she would federal legislation to codify the reproductive rights previously laid out in Roe v. Wade if elected to office.

As a state senator, Kaplan also ed a bill to crack down on “ghost guns,” in part by prohibiting the possession of major components of firearms and the possession of unfinished frames without a gunsmith license. She said she would continue prioritizing gun safety this election cycle, and has vowed to ban assault-style rifles, enhance federal background checks, and expand the “ghost gun” legislation to the federal level.

Mike Sapraicone 

Who is he? A retired NYPD detective; president and CEO of Squad Security, a global private security company

How much cash does his campaign have? $519,802.20

The Glen Head resident’s campaign has the most cash on hand of any candidate so far. Sapraicone declared his candidacy in late July, announcing in a statement his intentions “to return integrity and a respected voice to the office” and to focus on constituents who have been “unfairly neglected.” He blasted Santos after the House ethics committee published its findings earlier this month, calling the embattled representative a “fraudster and a crook.”

The 67-year-old is running as a political outsider and told THE CITY he sees himself as the “everyday guy with the constituents in the district.” He said he’s frustrated with elected officials who previously occupied the seat, and charged that they seemed to be more preoccupied with their re-election than with issues within the district. He’s also “fed up,” he said, with political extremes on both sides of the aisle.

“My whole life I’ve been a moderate. I am running as a Republican, but I’m running as an American … I’m running to be the best possible citizen and public service servant I can be to my country,” Sapraicone told THE CITY.

The former cop is leveraging his law enforcement background to run on a public safety and border control platform. He has vowed to require New York legislators to repeal bail reform, and to legislation that would prevent local governments from defunding their police departments. He also said he would work across party lines to restore state and local tax deductions.

Kellen Curry (R)

Who is he? U.S. Air Force veteran; former investment banker and vice president at J.P. Morgan

How much cash does his campaign have? $244,008.51

The 37-year-old was one of the first to officially challenge Santos, announcing his candidacy back in April in a bid that leans on his military and banking backgrounds. Curry is focusing his campaign on national security and the economy, and has been public on his push for “national service” and to “champion Israeli interest on the international stage.”

He told THE CITY he dealt with the purchase of weapons and cybersecurity systems in his eight years in the Air Force. He’s also paying special attention to the district’s sizable population of Jewish voters in the context of the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict, outlining a detailed agenda for U.S.-Israel relations including continued for the short-range missile defense system known as the Iron Dome.

“They want leaders who understand Middle East policy, have a view on it that’s strong, and it’s been informed by firsthand experience,” the Afghanistan war vet told THE CITY, referring to the district’s voters.

Curry also plans to “reduce regulatory burden” for small businesses and to control national spending by eliminating “ineffective and wasteful programs” and bolstering “social safety net programs that are headed for insolvency.”

Don’t Count Them Out:

• Austin Cheng (D): Cheng is the CEO at Gramercy Surgery Center and a former criminal military prosecutor. He is also the only East Asian running in the congressional district where the growing population of Chinese and Korean voters has been moving right in recent years. He’s taking on cost of living and healthcare as a candidate, with plans to advocate for tax reliefs and “reforms in the insurance industry.” He also said he would push for “proactive crime prevention strategies that address the root causes of crime” and introduce “new programs to assist immigrants and refugees overcome common challenges.” His campaign as of Sept. 30 had $459,060 in cash — the most so far among any Democratic candidates.
• Jim Toes (R): Toes was a managing director at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and is now the president and CEO of the Security Traders Association, an organization that serves financial service workers. He said he’s worked with regulators and lawmakers to advocate for “the combination of free-market capitalism and efficient government regulation.” He’s advocating for energy independence at the national level, including the development of alternative and renewable energy. He also said he would “enact pro-growth tax and regulatory policies,” legislate to stop fentanyl money laundering, and regulate stock trading in D.C. His campaign currently has $42,115.34 in cash.
• Gregory Hach (R): The Air Force veteran and personal injury attorney is running on a border control, public safety and national security platform. He has called for more police officers, and wants to “contain China’s threat” to the U.S., “protect Americans from cyber attacks,” and “ban stock trades by of congress.” His campaign currently has $150,262.69 in cash.
• Daniel Norber (R): Norber was a staff sergeant of the Israeli Defense Forces’s military police, and said the U.S. must “maintain a strong relationship to ensure its security” and “work with our partners to maintain peace in the region.” He also said he would fund community police “to stop drugs from coming into our country,” curb Medicaid and Medicare fraud, and reform the asylum process. His campaign currently has $116,611.46 in cash.
• Thomas Ludwig (R): Ludwig served in the U.S. Army Special Forces as a lieutenant colonel and calls himself a “common-sense Republican.” He’s concerned about the migrant crisis, the economy and “the failure of law and order.” His campaign currently has $2,000 in cash.
• Peter Christofides (R): Christofides told THE CITY he is running because he wants “Long Islanders to return to liberty by promoting constitutional values and principles.” His main platforms are on taxes, education, energy and law enforcement. He said he believes in school choice, and called the 16th Constitutional amendment that authorized income tax “immoral” and something that “needs to be repealed.” His campaign has not reported any fundraising to the FEC so far.
• Ryan Kalata (Libertarian): Kalata does not live in the district but said he is running for office there because “this district needs better representation.” He works in the food industry, and said he is running as an Independent despite filing to run as a Libertarian. He told THE CITY plans on addressing the cost of living, improving infrastructure, helping small businesses grow, and “putting an end to the war on drugs.” His campaign has not reported any fundraising to the FEC so far.
• Daniel Foti (Conservative): Foti is advocating for lower taxes, a comprehensive disaster preparedness plan, and “effective immigration policies that address national security concerns” while taking into consideration the “contributions that immigrants bring to a country.” His campaign has not reported any fundraising to the FEC so far.
• Matthew Nappo (I): Nappo has filed to run but has no visible campaign presence online other than a Facebook page, where he claimed to be a “100% SELF-FUNDED INDEPENDENT” in a post that points to a photo of Santos and reads “You Voted For Worse!” His campaign has not reported any fundraising to the FEC so far.
• Scott Livingston (D): Livingston has filed to run but his only visible campaign presence online is an on X (fka Twitter), where he criticizes Santos and shares ideas on how the district could lead the way in clean water, infrastructure and better and cheaper healthcare. His campaign has $88,232.98 in cash.
• Harvey Manes (R): Manes is an orthopedic surgeon who ran in 2022 before ultimately dropping out to yield to Santos. He has filed to run again after being “bamboozled” by Santos, despite telling QNS in January that he “wouldn’t run unless there’s a strong desire for me to do so among those in the district.” He has no visible campaign presence online.  His campaign has not reported any fundraising to the FEC so far.
• Philip Grillo (R): Grillo is a Marine Corps veteran and was the GOP district leader for Assembly District 24. He was arrested in 2021 in relation to the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection, for unlawful entry, disorderly conduct on Capitol grounds, and obstruction of justice. He told Newsday in May that he’s still awaiting trial on those charges but that he “didn’t do anything.” He has no visible campaign presence online. His campaign has not reported any fundraising to the FEC so far.